Lindy Effect Technology: Predicting Which Tech Will Last

In 2008, the iPhone was released. Everyone predicted it would disrupt the mobile phone industry.

Most of those predictions came true. But the interesting question is different: will the iPhone still exist in 2040?

By the Lindy Effect, the answer is: probably.

The iPhone has now survived 17 years. It has survived multiple OS iterations, multiple competitors, multiple technological paradigm shifts. It has proven robust to randomness and change.

By contrast, a technology released last year has proven nothing. It might become the next iPhone. Or it might disappear completely.

The longer something has survived, the more confident you can be in its continued survival.

The Lindy Test for Technology

Here's how to apply Lindy to technology:

Email: ~30 years of widespread use. Has survived the rise of social media, instant messaging, Slack, Discord, and countless predictions of its death. If it survives another 30 years, you can be confident that email will be around.

The Chair: ~5,000 years old. Has survived technological revolutions, fashion changes, wars, and civilizational collapse. If the chair persists, you can be confident it will persist another 5,000 years. Or at least several more centuries.

The Wheel: ~5,000+ years old. Has survived the advent of every major technology including airplanes, yet remains fundamental to modern life.

Twitter: Founded 2006. ~18 years of survival. But it's survived multiple crises — repeated predictions of death, the rise of other platforms, founder drama. Its survival is evidence, but the track record is shorter than email.

The iPhone: 17 years. Has survived multiple competitors, technological disruption, the arrival of Android. By Lindy, expect another 17+ years, minimum.

Snapchat: Founded 2011. ~13 years. Still here, but with a shorter track record than Instagram or Facebook. Would you bet on its existence in 2035? Less confident than email.

TikTok: Founded 2016. ~8 years. Novel format, huge growth. But new technologies have enormous failure rates. Survival is unpredictable.

The latest AI app you heard about: Founded 2024. Zero track record. Very high uncertainty.

The Pattern

Notice the pattern:

The longer a technology has survived, the more confident you can be in its continued survival.

The shorter the track record, the more speculative the future survival.

This doesn't mean old is always better. The iPhone is better than some older technologies in specific ways. But the iPhone's 17-year survival is evidence that it's robust in a way that a brand-new technology cannot be.

Technological Disruption and Lindy

One objection: doesn't technology disrupt? Doesn't the Lindy Effect fail when new technology makes old technology obsolete?

Sometimes, yes. But even disruption follows Lindy logic:

The technology that disrupts an old one typically has to survive itself. And survival becomes harder.

The printing press disrupted the manuscript. But the printing press itself has not been disrupted — books are still printed, and the technology is fundamentally unchanged for centuries.

The automobile disrupted the horse. But automobiles have been around for 130+ years and show no sign of being disrupted into complete irrelevance.

The internet disrupted mail. But mail hasn't disappeared — it still exists, still has value, still survives.

Technological disruption usually means a new technology emerges and becomes dominant. But the old technology often persists in a reduced role.

The Survival Paradox

Here's an interesting observation:

If something has survived despite facing disruption, that's actually stronger evidence of robustness. The printing press not only persisted but became more universal. Books not only survived the internet but are still a major form of information distribution.

The technologies that survive disruption are the ones with genuine robustness — they're not just riding a wave, they're addressing fundamental human needs.

The chair survived the desk, the office layout, the remote work revolution. Humans still sit. The technology of sitting is robust.

Predictions

Using Lindy, here are some predictions:

Email will still be dominant communication in 2040. It has survived 30 years, competing technologies continue to emerge, yet it persists. Expect another 30+ years minimum.

The smartphone will still exist in 2040. It's 17 years old and has proven robust to competition and disruption. But the form factor might change, and other technologies might supplement it.

The car might look different in 2040 but the underlying technology will persist. 130+ years of survival, survived multiple technological revolutions. The basic idea of the automobile is robust.

Most current social media apps won't exist in 2040. Facebook and Instagram have 15-20 years of survival. But social media is a new category and disruption is rapid. Many will disappear.

The latest AI app you heard about might not exist in 2034. It's too new. The survival test hasn't been applied. Very high uncertainty.

The Strategic Insight

Here's the insight for your own life:

When choosing technologies to invest time in learning, prefer technologies with longer survival records. They're more likely to still be relevant when you need them.

Learning Excel (30+ years of survival, 130+ million users) is safer than learning a newfangled spreadsheet tool from a startup.

Learning Python (30+ years) is safer than learning a hot new programming language from 2023.

Understanding email is safer than betting your communication entirely on whatever the latest trend is.

You're not avoiding learning new things. But you're recognizing that old things that have survived have proven themselves.

The combination — depth in proven technologies, breadth in learning new ones — is the antifragile approach to learning.